Bigger vs Smaller Pitchers

Is it true that bigger and taller pitchers are better than smaller pitchers? I guess it’s depends on your point of reference. Do major league pitchers tend to be taller. Yes. But that could be chalked up to scouting bias. The fact is bigger and taller pitchers look more impressive and tend to throw harder on average based on their longer limb lengths to create leverage. The argument goes like this: Bigger/taller pitchers throw harder allowing for a bigger margin of error on their pitches. They create more of a downward angle which has been widely accepted as being a positive attribute.

Every scout has to justify their recommendations for the draft and with the advent of the radar gun some 50 years ago, justifying their picks was a lot easier based on velocity. So if there is a bias toward taller pitchers who throw harder, it goes to reason that there will be fewer smaller pitchers in the big leagues. Thus, a smaller sample size to evaluate. Does that prove bigger pitchers are better? No, all that proves is that there are taller pitchers in the MLB based on the overall bias of organizations to draft taller pitchers.

Now let’s look at some other arguments. The current bias is that taller/bigger pitchers are more durable. Ironically, there is no evidence of this. Bigger/taller pitchers come with a special set of problems as their longer limbs create timing issues, movement difficulties, and problems repeating their motion. Smaller pitchers tend to be more athletic and their mechanics tend to be easier to repeat, thus not allowing for mechanical variations in deliveries. This is a major positive in injury prevention.

Do taller/bigger pitchers tend to produce more absolute force based on their longer limbs? Generally yes. They also look more impressive. When a big and tall pitcher lights up the radar gun, it’s only human nature to be a bit impressed. However, being bigger and stronger has its negatives.

Although most strength and conditioning guys are great, the work done in the weight room can produce tight inflexible muscles if not properly stretched and manipulated for high velocity movements. Pulled hamstrings, strained muscles and torn ligaments are a serious concern. This has to be accounted for in the whole equation. Not to mention the velocity dangers of longer limbs having the ability to create upper levels of force. There is an argument to be made that the human body cannot handle these new high stress levels. This can result in UCL tears, labrum tears, etc. So, a case can be made that bigger pitchers are not more durable but ironically more injury prone. By contrast, smaller pitchers tend to be more efficient in their actions, thus the potential for injury is reduced.   

From a performance point of view, again there is no evidence that taller pitchers have an advantage. For the longest time, pitching down in the zone was considered to be the goal. With the 70s/80s hitters employing “knob to ball” and “downward swings” to contact the result was often reduced contact areas to hit the ball. So having more of a downward angle on your pitches was advantageous.

Today, hitters have adjusted to flatten out their swings. They are now creating early momentum, adjustability, and better attack angles in their swings. In addition, MLB has brought back the higher strike zone allowing pitchers more latitude to pitch up in the zone. With the incredible uptick in velocity and the ability to throw explosive breaking pitches, the higher strike zone is a major factor in how a pitcher attacks hitters. The advantage of a steep downward angle to the plate is just not as effective in today’s game as hitters are better equipped to handle those pitches.

Now, high spin rate fastballs, up in the zone are the norm and these taller pitchers throwing “down” into a higher location are just not as effective. What is effective are lower slot pitchers pitching up in the zone! A pitcher with high spin rate, a low angle and pitching up in the zone for potential called strikes is a major weapon. Guys like Kimbrel, Stroman, Archer, Scherzer, Sale, Bauer all employ this strategy. Wow, What a minute! Did you say Chris Sale? He's is 6’-7”. Correct but look at his release point. Most of his pitches are thrown at a height lower than 5’ high! No wonder he gets so many swings and misses on fastballs up in the zone. From that arm slot, it looks like the ball is climbing. Randy Johnson was another tall lefty who used this lower arm slot to his advantage. Smaller pitchers like Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner could naturally pump the fastball up in the zone and create a totally different look for the hitter. His fastball seemed to explode upward and there is no telling how effective he could have been pitching in today’s higher strike zone where hitters have to account for potential called strikes up in the zone.

Another factor to consider is that since smaller pitchers tend to be more athletic, their ability to organize the bodies better lend themselves to having better control. The poster boy for this argument is Greg Maddox. His ability to work movement and pinpoint his pitches was extraordinary. However, he is not the only one. Guys like Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, Whitey Ford, Fernando Valenzuela, etc. have been widely known for their effectiveness in controlling the zone.

Another factor we must consider is the economic side of the equation. The economic value of smaller pitchers relative to taller ones is interesting. In a Fangraphs article written by Elliott Evans April 3, 2015 he states:

“We see that short and tall relievers are clustered between -1 and 1 WAR and $1 million and $5 million dollars. However, we see several taller relievers past the $7.5 million mark with unremarkable WARs, which we don’t see for shorter relievers. From this, we would suspect that taller relievers are being overvalued while shorter relievers are being undervalued.

This is, in fact, the case: short relief pitchers are producing 2.33 WAR for every $10 million they earn in free agency while taller relievers are producing 1.36 WAR for every $10 million they earn. In comparing these values with a one-sided t-test, we acquire a P-Value of 0.0018, meaning these are results we would acquire by chance only .18% (a significant value) of the time. And so it goes, relievers under 6 feet are actually about 1.7 times as valuable as their taller counterparts.

Is there something inherently different about shorter pitchers that makes them less capable of pitching successfully in the big leagues? The evidence says no. In fact, it might be more worthwhile for General Managers to draft pitchers under 6 feet tall and reap the rewards.”

In conclusion, the evidence that taller pitchers are more effective and durable is lacking. In fact, a strong case can be made to the exact opposite of the current bias. A coach would be smart to consider the advantages that smaller pitchers bring to the table with their ability to be more coordinated, athletic, durable and their ability to manipulate an upward angle to the hitter. 

Stealing 2nd Base on a 3-0 Count? Maybe!

Similar to hitting in a 3-0 count, what about stealing second base on a 3-0 count? Well, there are definitely advantages. The first advantages is the element of surprise. Nobody steals a base on 3-0 because they are afraid of the pitcher giving a hitter a walk after throwing a strike on 3-0. Second, the pitcher usually falls back into their comfortable rhythm. The rhythm that they feel most comfortable throwing a strike from. If you have been paying attention during the game, you can capitalize on this to get a great jump. Third, by stealing second base on 3-0, you now put a runner in scoring position for your hitter to hit in a 3-1 count. Fourth, once the pitcher knows you may steal second base on 3-0, making that 3-0 pitch becomes much more difficult to execute. You are essentially taking away his concentration from the task at hand.

So when is a good time to steal second base on a 3-0 count? How about with a potential lead off type hitter at the plate. If you get thrown out, he can be a good lead-off hitter for the nest inning. How about anytime you have a high average, no power hitter at the plate. In this scenario, by stealing second base you are only asking for your team to get one hit instead or two and increase your chances of scoring with your high average hitter hitting with men in scoring position. There are many other scenarios that make sense. Play aggressive and put pressure on the other team with the 3-0 steal of second base.

Why Don't We Hit 3-0?

Hitting on a 3-0 Count-

Let’s take a look at hitting in a 3-0 count. Does this make sense? At every level of baseball, taking a pitch on 3-0 is the norm. Why? I don’t know how or why this became an accepted practice but it doesn’t make a lot of sense. The arguments for taking a pitch on 3-0 are basically rooted in fear and/or falsehoods. They go like this; we can’t trust the hitter to not swing at ball four or the pitcher has already thrown 3 balls in a row so we should assume he is going to throw another one. Either way of looking at it, it is a very passive way of playing the game. Think about it, if you are scared that your hitter is going to swing at a ball 3-0, then why are you letting him swing on 3-1? Does that make any sense? All you are doing is taking away the most advantageous count to hit from your hitter. Let’s take a look at some data taken from the MLB in 2013.

Split     AB          H         2B        3B       HR        BA       OBP       SLG       OPS
 0-0    19283    6485   1270      133      800     .336      .341       .540       .882
 1-0     12397    4127     848        82      554      .333      .333       .549       .882
 2-0      4516    1480     327        29      228      .328      .327       .564       .892
 3-0       292      103        25         3        25        .353     .948       .716      1.663
 0-1    16286   5068      943        71      450      .311       .319       .461       .779
  1-1    15617    5166     1037       73      521       .331      .334       .507       .840
 2-1      9348    3281      683       69      440      .351      .352       .580       .932
 3-1      3876    1329      279       24       252       343      .680      .622      1.302
 0-2    15987    2431      428       50      160       .152      .161       .215        .376
 1-2     26731    4428      773       63      354      .166      .173       .239        .412
 2-2    25210     4562     858       93      453       .181      .187       .276       .463
 3-2    16527     3632      751       82      424      .220      .452       .352       .804
 

So what are the advantages of having a green light to hit on 3-0? It’s plainly obvious from the table above that hitting in a 3-0 count is to the hitter’s advantage. It’s not even close.  Higher average, higher on-base percentage, higher slugging percentage, and higher OPS. Why is this?  For the simple reason that the pitcher knows he’s in a non-threatening situation and is free to throw a ball down the middle without consequence. Why are coaches allowing an opposing pitcher to have this luxury? It boggles my mind. As a coach, you have to realize you are setting your hitter up to fail easier by only allowing him to swing in one advantageous count when you could get two advantageous counts. So why would you voluntarily give that up that advantage? I don’t get it. You are coaching the game by fear.

Okay, you convinced me. So what are the advantages again? First, by swinging on 3-0, the pitcher will realize he no longer has a non-compete count, thus changing the 3-0 count into a pressure situation. This will result in more BBs for you hitters.  Second, with your hitter getting another advantage count to hit in, the probability of getting more people on base, getting more extra base hits, and driving in more runs goes way up.

Coaches, don’t be scared. Put your players in a better position to succeed. Let them swing!